Utah population trends are catching up with nation
Dr. Pamela s. Perlich works as a senior research economist in the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Utah. She is an expert in the state on demographics and economics.
“In my work, I try to identify the long-term trends that have brought us to the present and understand how these trends will potentially shape the future, especially for Utah,” Perlich said. “My timeframe is 1850 to 2050 and my field of view — connecting the global to the local — is vast.
“Academic researchers typically concentrate their work in highly specialized areas. Terminology and ideas are so particular to these areas of research, that years of study are required to understand the field and communicate with peers. In contrast, my research is quite applied, as opposed to strictly academic. And my intended audience is the larger community, most of whom are not economists.”
Besides educating laymen in the state about trends in demographics and the economy, Perlich also teaches in the Department of City and Metropolitan Planning at the University of Utah.
Just how much Utah’s population is changing is radical by historical realities. Perlich shares excerpts from “Utah’s Demographic Transformation: A View into the Future,” published in the Bureau of Economic and Business Research’s “Utah Economic and Business Review” in 2008.
• Utah is in the midst of an unprecedented economic, demographic and cultural transformation that has its origins in national and international trends. The cumulative impact of these trends is that Utah, along with the rest of the nation, will continue to become much more diverse in many ways, including age, culture, language, nativity, race, ethnicity, religion and socioeconomics.
• Two major population trends driving changes are 1) the continued arrival of record numbers of young, working-age immigrants and 2) the aging of the population, which is the combined result of the post-World War II baby boom approaching retirement and increasing life expectancy.
• Utah, along with the intermountain region, has emerged as a net in-migration (growth) region. As Utah has incorporated these new populations and has become more fully integrated into global markets, its signature demographics remain but have followed national trends.
• Racial and ethnic minorities are estimated to be 18 percent of the Utah population, 24 percent in Salt Lake County and 35 percent for the U.S. in 2007. By 2050, these proportions are expected to increase to 30 percent, 41 percent and 54 percent, respectively.
• Increase in ethnic and racial diversity represents a generational shift, as nearly one-fourth of preschool-age persons in Utah and one-third in Salt Lake County in 2007 were estimated to be racial or ethnic minorities. In contrast, less than 10 percent of retirement-age Utahns were estimated to be minorities.
• Populations of youth, working-age and elderly in Utah are all projected to increase, with the greatest rates of increase in the oldest age groups. Within a generation, the 60-and-older population is expected to exceed the school-age population in Utah.
• As adults, the youth of today will carry a greater demographic burden than their parents’ generation. Besides supporting the highest youth population per capita of any state, they will be asked to support an increasing share of elderly.
• Working-age Utahns are projected to decline from 60 percent of the population in 2010 to 53 percent in 2050 (compared with 63 percent and 57 percent nationally).
• Cumulatively, these trends have far-reaching implications for our future, and require the effective re-engineering of a broad spectrum of our investments from human capital (education, labor force development, etc.) to our built environment (housing, transportation, etc.).
Perlich takes a distilled approach to communicating research that can be cumbersome. In presentations throughout the state and nation, she has developed a straight-forward delivery that is warm and friendly.
“Although my approach is grounded in economics — this is my training — I try to be more multidisciplinary in my vision and research,” Perlich said. “Academic ‘disciplines’ have been constructed to compartmentalize knowledge and restrict access. This creates the silos in the university where the study of the economy can supposedly be separated from that of politics, geography, psychology, sociology, business, anthropology and so forth.
“My brand of social science is more integrative, in a sense, anti-disciplinary,” she said. “By making non-economists my intended audience, my work is further complicated. I distill and translate complex technical ideas into language and concepts that are comprehensible to non-experts. This means that effective communication and teaching techniques are central to my work.”
More of Perlich’s research is available on the Internet.
Salt Lake County's Unique Demographics: Implications for the Future http://www.bebr.utah.edu/Documents/uebr/UEBR2006/Sep-Dec%202006.pdf
Utah’s Place in the Macro-Demographics of the U.S. in the 20th Century http://www.bebr.utah.edu/Documents/uebr/UEBR2006/Mar-Apr%202006.pdf
Long Term Demographic Trends Impacting Higher Education in Utah http://www.bebr.utah.edu/Documents/studies/HighEdTrends.pdf
Immigrants Transform Utah: Entering a New Era of Diversity
http://www.bebr.utah.edu/Documents/uebr/UEBR2004/May-Jun%202004.pdf
Commuting Patterns in Utah: County Trends for 1980, 1990, and 2000 http://www.bebr.utah.edu/Documents/uebr/UEBR2003/May-Jun%202003.pdf
Economic, Demographic, and Fiscal Impacts of Closing Hill Air Force Base: A Statewide and Regional Analysis (with Jan Crispin) http://www.bebr.utah.edu/Documents/studies/HAFB04.pdf
The Coming Boom in Utah's School Age and College Age Populations: State and County Scenarios (with T. Ross Reeve) http://www.bebr.utah.edu/Documents/uebr/UEBR2002/Sep-Oct%202002.pdf
Utah Minorities: The Story Told by 150 Years of Census Data http://www.bebr.utah.edu/Documents/studies/Utah_Minorities.pdf
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Here are some of my affiliations:
· Member, Utah Population Estimates Committee
· University's primary contact with the Bureau of the Census through the State Data Center program
· Member, Utah Council for Economic Education as the representative for the University of Utah
· Member, Envision Utah Steering Committee
· Faculty in the Graduate Certificate in Demography, U of U
· Member, Center on Aging, U of U.